Avocado will overtake pineapples and mangoes as the most commercialized tropical fruit by 2030, according to the Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Production is expected to reach 12 Mt, with up to 3.9 Mt exported, surpassing both pineapples and mangoes in volume.
Because of the avocado’s high average unit costs, the total value of global avocado exports is estimated to be $8.3 billion, making it one of the most valuable fruits on the market.
Broad world demand and lucrative export unit prices continue to be the main drivers of this growth, stimulating substantial investments in the expansion of the production area in major producing and emerging countries.
Avocado production has been focused in a few locations and countries thus far. The top ten producing countries presently account for about 80% of global production, and while new growing areas are rapidly emerging, Latin America and the Caribbean are predicted to account for nearly 74 percent of avocado production in 2030 due to the region’s good growing circumstances.
Production in Mexico, the world’s largest producer and exporter, is expected to grow by 5.2% annually over the next ten years due to continued growth in demand in the United States, Mexico’s main export market. So, despite growing competition from emerging exporters, Mexico is expected to continue increasing its world export share to 63% of the total in 2030, according to the report.
The United States and the European Union, where consumer interest in avocados is driven by their healthy benefits, will continue to be the top importers for the next decade, accounting for 40% and 31% of world imports in 2030, respectively. However, imports are also increasing rapidly in many other countries, such as China and some Middle Eastern countries, and, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of all importers, the concentration of imports is gradually decreasing, the document states.
Credit: Fresh plaza
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