The ever-popular avocado continues to be in high demand worldwide, with increased demand in places like Germany. Avocado consumption continues to rise in China as consumers get more familiar with the fruit. Australian growers are reaping the benefits, sending off their first-ever 40-foot container to the Asian market, as well as likely expecting their largest crop ever. Extreme temperatures of up to 45°C have impacted avocado production in European producing countries such as Italy and Spain.
Avocados in smaller sizes are in high demand and pricing in the Netherlands and Belgium.
Kenya is continuing to ship avocado containers and will do so until the end of the year. Many small calibres of Hass are currently being exported from the country. Tanzania has begun loading containers as well. Because significant exporting countries like Peru are actually shipping larger calibres this year. Demand for tiny calibres (22 and smaller) is strong. As a result, the price of smaller sizes is likely to climb, while the price of larger sizes is likely to reduce. Small calibres are currently priced between seven and eight euros. The season will shortly begin in Chile, Israel, and Spain, and prices will be influenced by the quality and volume of production from those nations beginning in September/October.
Germany: Following the end of the summer vacations, there is a surge in demand.
Avocados are still in great demand in Germany, owing in part to the conclusion of summer vacations. Avocados from places such as Kenya, Peru, South Africa, and Colombia are currently available on the German market. According to a large dealer, Kenyan avocados have a little poorer quality since they have not always grown sufficiently in the ripening chambers. The summer season, which will expire in two to three weeks, is still dominated by Peruvian avocados. Avocados from Israel, on the other hand, won’t arrive until late October for the “Pinkerton” and “Ettinger” kinds, and November for the “Hass.”
Due to various promotions, there may be an artificial shortage of 18-caliber variations. However, numerous 14- and 16-caliber grades are still available on the market.
Basically, 14s and 16s can be had for less than 7 euros. Kenyan avocados, on the other hand, cost 6.50 euros while 18-caliber avocados cost around 7.25 euros. There are no unique conditions or short-term shortages foreseen at this time.
Spain: Avocado output in Spain is threatened by botryosphaeria and temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius.
There are more than 20,000 hectares of avocados in the Iberian Peninsula, divided between Malaga, Granada, Cádiz, Huelva, Valencia, and southern Portugal, based on Spanish and Portuguese output. The Iberian avocado industry, which has a season that extends from December to April, is seeking to expand not only its surface cultivation but also its marketing window.
Nonetheless, Botryosphaeria, a fungus that impairs tree vegetative growth, is a severe problem in nurseries and young plantations. Botryosphaeria infects the setting areas, rotting the fruit and causing it to fall to the ground. This is a significant issue affecting avocado output across the board. The other factor is the high temperatures and climatic extremes that Spain is experiencing, which are beginning to repeat themselves year after year, with temperatures occasionally exceeding 45°C. The fruit is paralyzed by the extremely high temperatures, and the tree collapses and throws the fruit to the ground if there is a lack of water, as is the case now. The fruit fall this year is widespread, which means that harvest projections will not be as projected for another year, even though it is estimated that production will be more than previous year.
Italy: Due to a high supply of avocados, prices on the Italian market are low.
Estimates for the 2021/22 Sicilian avocado production campaign are too early to make. “Due to unusually low average spring temperatures, we expect a slightly later start to the season than last year. Temperatures appear to have stabilized following the anxieties associated with the 46 °C reached at the turn of July and August “According to a Sicilian entrepreneur. “The trees are full, but this year will not be as good as the last, when 1,400 tonnes of product were produced.”
“As for Peruvian Hass avocados, we have observed a decline in prices due to a significant supply of product,” a distributor from Milan says. The Italian import season began at the end of April/beginning of May and is expected to expire in a few weeks. While Hass avocados are generally purchased for at least EUR 10.00, they are now available for EUR 5.00. Greenskin avocados have done well in foreign markets, such as the Netherlands. Because of the restricted quantity available, the product has been a huge success. Pinkerton, Fuerte, and Ryan types from South Africa and Peru were sold for between 12.00 and 13.00 Euro.”
South Africa: Fuerte costs roughly twice as much as Hass.
Before Peru’s avocados came, prices were good on the early European market, but after that, the export market was difficult for South African exporters. As Peru’s quantities decline, exports from the late regions are rising up again; farmers in these areas are leaving their fruit on the trees to wait for better market circumstances.
Avocados from South Africa may not arrive in Europe until week 46.
The crop amount is similar to last year, at roughly 16 million 4kg cartons, which is lower than expected when the season began, given the good summer rainfall in the production regions.
The average avocado price per kilogram on the local market is R16.06 (0.9 euro). Fuerte prices are close to record levels for this time of year, according to a trader on the Johannesburg municipal market floor, and have been strong for a month at R110 (6.2 euro) and R130 (7.3 euro) for a 4kg carton, while Hass is roughly half that at R60 to R70 per 4kg carton.
Unlike most other areas in the globe, Hass is generally a little cheaper than Fuerte, but the difference this year is exceptionally considerable. The processing sector (guacamole for export, for example) consumes a large portion of the little Hass fruit, exerting a strong pull on Hass volumes.
The local hospitality and catering industry, which normally caters to Hass customers, is still in shambles.
China: Chinese customers are becoming more interested in avocados, with imports up 27%.
Avocados have been fairly popular in recent years, and many Chinese consumers have them on their tables. A growing number of people are becoming acquainted with the fruit and have begun to incorporate it into their diet.
Prohass recently released their most recent figures, stating that the country intends to import roughly 467,000 tons of avocados in the 2021 season, up 27% from the previous season. With a fairly stable supply and a high-quality product, Peru has already become the top supplier of avocados to the Chinese market.
North America: Avocados have a smaller fruit size but a higher demand in the North American market.
As the avocado growing seasons come to an end, the focus will shift to avocado sizing and pricing.
In the United States, California is nearing the end of its avocado harvest. According to a Californian importer, “they’re approximately 95-96 percent done with the estimate.” “We have around three to four weeks left,” says the narrator. This week, 6-7 million pounds of fruit are expected to be moved, followed by 5 million the next week, and then a weekly tapering down from there.
Mexico, on the other hand, is having a different season than last year. For a variety of factors, the fruit on the trees is much smaller this year. Last year’s crop was exceptionally large. The weather in Mexico has also had a significant role. It’s rainy season, but the fruit needs sunlight to thrive, and they haven’t got much heat yet, according to sources.
As a result, the sizing of avocados from Mexico appears to be different at the moment. According to the Californian importer, “currently it’s close to 50% of 70s and 84s, so little fruit.” “The industry will be obliged to reduce its output. So 48 users will have to change to 60s, and 60 users will have to go to 70s. Otherwise, there won’t be any other choice.”
He goes on to say that size 48s account for about 34% of the industry’s demand, while pack outs are now at around 18%. “It’s basically depleting industry inventory now and within two weeks, there are no options. It’s either take a smaller size or you’re not going to have product,” he says. Noting that persuading the industry to accept the lower sizing is the main problem right now.
Meanwhile, avocado demand has been very strong, hovering around the low 50 million pound/week mark. “We got close to 60 million pounds, but demand is surprisingly and relatively high, especially given the price.”
Indeed, in the last three to four months, there has been a lot of volatility in pricing. At the moment, 48s are around $65, 60s are around $50, and 70s are around $30. Currently, there is a significant price gap, which may force consumers into smaller sizes.
Prices, on the other hand, are expected to rise if Mexico becomes the sole supplier. “We could see upwards of $80 for 48s in a few weeks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 60s in the $60-$65 range and 70s closer to $40,” says the importer. “The difficult part for the packers is that they pay 65-70 pesos per kilo, and with such a small pack out on the 48s and 60s, they have to raise that price. It isn’t working for their pricing strategy. We estimate that three weeks from now, when Mexico regains control, we will see 80-85 pesos a kg, which will keep prices high.”
He did say that avocado sizing will catch up, but it will take four to five weeks. “We may be dealing with the size issue for the next month to two months. They need to catch up and until that happens, I don’t see any price relief in sight.”
Australia: Expectations are high for what may be the largest avocado crop in the country’s history.
According to statistics, 423,281 avocado trays were delivered for the week ending July 9, up 23% from the previous week and 7% more than the predicted 396,431 trays. North Queensland contributed 52 percent of the fruit, with Central Queensland accounting for 39 percent. Over the last two weeks, consumers have benefited from cheap retail costs, with Hass avocados costing between $1 and $2 each at supermarkets and grocers.
In 2021, a prominent Australian avocado grower stated that the country will generate some of the largest avocado crops it has ever produced, resulting in increased opportunities both locally and abroad. “In the last two months, we packed an Australian first 40-foot sea container for Singapore,” an industry representative said. We’ve done a lot of 20-foot containers in the past, and there have been a few going up to Asia this season (from another company), but we’ve never gotten into the major game, which is the 40-foot containers of fruit going up. Price has been a factor in attracting new customers over the last ten years, so when supply is plentiful, we have the opportunity to attract even more people to the product.”
He went on to say that the weather has been remarkably favorable across the growing regions; the only one that has had too much rain, he said, is Central NSW, but everyone else has had decent weather, so size and volume are up.”